2013 John McMenemy Prize

Winner: Frank P. Harvey

President Al Gore and the 2003 Iraq War: A Counterfactual Test of Conventional ‘W’isdom, Canadian Journal of Political Science 45:1

Excerpt from jury report: A remarkable example of counterfactual analysis examining the validity of widely held political interpretations and deepening our theoretical understanding of crucial decisions. Harvey rigorously examines the all but universal acceptance of what he terms ‘neoconism’ – that the Bush administration’s decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003 was a function of its ideological agenda, misguided priorities, intentional deceptions and grand strategies. Relying on a wide range of data sources, Harvey builds a strong case that had Al Gore won the 2002 Presidential election, he would have reacted to the Iraq situation in much the same fashion as did George W. Bush. Whatever one’s view of the Bush administration and the Iraq war, this incisive analysis cannot be ignored.